Monday, May 21, 2018

Terror House Magazine

Conformity, normalcy, and being good is boring.  It is unfortunately what gets published, what doesn't get banned, and what doesn't make you lose your channel.  This presents not only independent ideas and thoughts from being passed around the minds of the world, but it also foregoes some good writing.

So I would like to introduce Matt Forney's latest excursion into entrepreneurship and literature - Terror House Magazine.

From their own words:

Terror House Magazine is an independent literary magazine focused on nurturing and promoting the best up-and-coming writers of our generation. Founded on May 14, 2018 in Budapest, Hungary by author and journalist Matt Forney, Terror House’s mission is to publish outsider literary fiction, literary nonfiction, and cultural criticism/analysis. We follow in the tradition established by trailblazers such as Fluland, Loompanics Unlimited, and Feral House, publishing works that are too edgy, unusual, or honest to be released elsewhere.

I know "just another blog" may not be of interest to you, and that's fine, many of us simply don't have the time to read.  However, they do have a competition for the best writers each month which may give you authors enough incentive to perhaps submit some of your finer pieces or create news ones.  It doesn't pay much (just $10), but it might be enough to sweeten the pot that you guys might want to gamble.

New Channel: Older Brother

One of the RARE times I need your help Cappy Cappites.


"The Sensitive 90's Man: RIP"

May he rest in peace.

Peak Oil, Super Spikes, Fracking, Baby Boomers, and Telecommuting

Cappy delves into predicting the future world of oil and oil prices.  With fracking and telecommuting there's hope the world won't run out of oil...at least during Cappy's lifetime, and that's all the really matters.


Sunday, May 20, 2018

Even Worthless SJW Journalism Professors Admit There's an Education Bubble

My god, you know it's bad when the LEFT admits there's a bubble.

But of course, not until she first made a baby boomer's worth of a career off of charging you kiddies tuition for said degrees over the decades.  I applaud her for growing the balls and telling the kids the truth.  Just convenient she comes out now about it on the precipice of retirement.

Breaking into the Tech Industry - a Beginner's Guide

A client of mine who works in the tech industry wanted to KINDLY and SELFLESSLY offer a video series on how to break into the tech industry.  He noted that I did not work in the tech industry and, though I was pointing people in the right direction, my audience would benefit immeasurably with a more detailed video series about the industry. 

PLEASE share with any young men or women you know who are looking to get into the industry!


Friday, May 18, 2018

YouTube's Pandora's Box


There were two important life lesson's I've learned in the recent 2-3 years in my life.  One was that people are the number one cause of problems.  I learned this watching a friend try to run a business that was full of moving parts.  Yes, those moving parts did invariably break down, throwing the standard monkey wrench into the works, but it was nowhere near as problematic as the people involved with the firm.  From management to low ranked employees, from contractors to vendors, from sponsors to customers, it was people (and their mistakes) who cost my friend the most in terms of time and money.

The second lesson I learned is that time inevitably becomes more important than money.  This is true the closer you get to the "escape velocity of poverty" or more ideally "The Position of Fuck You."  It rings especially true if you paid attention and learned the value of minimalism and that humans are the most important thing in life.  The irony is I've know many people who've blown past the escape velocity of poverty, some multimillionaires, who keep insisting on pissing away 40-100 hours a week as surgeons, law partners, developers, etc. etc. even though the day of their demise is rapidly approaching.  But the larger point is my time has become INCREDIBLY important to me that I simply do not suffer fools or inefficiency.  There's too little time my sentience and consciousness has left on this planet and (as anybody who's hung out with me will tell you) it is an immediate tackling and aggressive pursuit of the day's duties, followed up by an immediate and equally aggressive pursuit of happiness and fun.  And this is not possible if I'm dumb enough to choose to deal with stupid people in my life.

Though a bit lofty and philosophical, the world's social media giants can learn a thing or two from this.  And it applies specifically to their community standards they've insisted on forcing all their users to conform to.  Because if you think about it, to...

track
observer
record
notify
discipline
and ultimately baby-sit

the speech, actions and behaviors of sometimes up to half a billion users, that's gotta cost more than the East Germany Stasi apparatus.

Now, yes, of course, with today's technology a lot of work can be done by algorithms, programs, and formulae.  And if you look at Facebook's profitability, it's certainly possible to have such a spy network enforce such community standards on your user base.  But whether you're profitable as Facebook, unprofitable as twitter, or "questionably" profitable as YouTube, I have a simple question:

Wouldn't all these companies be better off financially if they just didn't get involved with something as onerous and taxing as regulating speech on their platforms?

Admittedly there is the argument that if they don't clean up their act then the precious, precious advertising dollars would dry up as offensive language, political opinions, and other politically incorrect speech drove advertising dollars away.  This came to fruition with the 2017 "Adpocolypse" wherein several large advertisers with YouTube threatened to cancel their support once they found out their ads were being ran on hate-speech videos.  Certainly a concern, but one would think a somber, sober analysis of the situation would have logically resulted in the FAANG companies making the argument to their advertisers that...

"Look guys, we don't control speech on the internet.  And we think that most people today know that if a Coke ad runs before a hate speech video that doesn't mean Coke endorses hate speech.  Instead of asking us to open up and then jump into this pandora's box, can you first see if sales drop conclusively due to your ads being occasionally paired with politically unpopular videos?"

That would have saved the world's social media giants billions in time, money, and resources, not to mention foregone opportunity costs had they not been baby sitting the world's online speech (I would like to also argue allowing from ALL speech, hate or not, would allow them to help law enforcement track/find terrorists, pedophiles, slave trafficking, etc., much more easily, but, meh, that's just me).  Instead these companies opted to open Pandora's Box and are dealing with a managerial and technical nightmare, not to mention the psychological toll that comes from all the internet drama they stirred up.  The totality of this painassery and cost makes my aforementioned buddy's company seem like a cake-walk and I do NOT envy the complaint departments are YouTube, Twitter, or Facebook. 

But while it may confuse most of us as to why the FAANG companies simply didn't make a plea to advertisers that this was a "new normal" and there wasn't going to be any fallout with having ads being associated with politically incorrect speech, there's an alternative theory that may explain why they capitulated so quickly.  And that is the new, and seemingly only, modern day marketing strategy most companies have today - corporate virtue signaling.

I've delved into this before, but the short version is that over the past 2 1/2 generations trillions has been dumped into K-college education.  Some of that went to actual education, teaching kids reading, writing and arithmetic.  But at least half also went into establishing a nation-wide religion in the form of brainwashing which championed, or at least psychologically predisposed weaker minds into some variant of leftist politics.  Environmentalism, feminism, race relations, or just plain socialism.  The brilliance of this indoctrination was that in merely taking the correct and popular political stances  value would be immediately conferred upon you without requiring you to put forth any actual work, toil, or effort.  And so now everybody is "going green," everybody is "a feminist," everybody is "organic," and everybody "drinks fair trade coffee." But while one can argue whether there was a larger political motivation behind this, there is no argument that it has laid down this incredible psychological, tribalistic infrastructure that makes marketing to most sheep Americans incredibly easy.  You just pander.  You just virtue signal.  You tell those kids your burritos are organic and fair trade, and you also tell them you're opening up your bathrooms to whoever wants to use them.

Dick's sporting goods is the most recent example that comes to memory.  Veritably stepping on the corpses of the high school students unfortunately shot in Florida last month, they decided to ride the anti-gun wave to make some money.  They calculatedly virtuously destroyed all their assault style guns, ne'er letting a crisis or corpse go to waste.  But let us be very clear.  They did NOT do this because they cared about safety, shootings, or murder.  They did it to make money, period.

We can go on about the unlimited number of examples of corporate virtue signaling, the point is nearly ALL of modern day Corporate American marketing is virtue signaling, which inexorably intertwines them with politics.  And since they decided to make this deal with the devil, they can't simply market good quality products at low prices, but now have condemned themselves to dancing around the fragile, fragile eggshell feelings of the most spoiled and easily-offended Americans in the entire history of America.  And since this is the boat American Corporations are anchored to, ANY complaints that call into question the appropriateness and correctness of their political stances has the potential to immediately render the entire efficacy of their marketing strategy moot and ineffective.  Thus, if Coke gets a complaint their ad was seen on some obscure white supremacist's YouTube channel, the ENTIRE INDUSTRY has to react rapidly and drastically.

If we were mature adults, we would appreciate the freedom of speech, and neither corporate America nor the FAANG companies that rely on their advertising dollars would have to deal with monitoring and regulating speech online.  They would not have to set up costly Stasi-like digital apparatuses to see if Bob in Bolivia offended Frank from France.  And they would not have have to employ entire divisions of programmers to create bots that would identify "naughty words."  Even the baby boomers, in the depths of their 60's pot-inured days, understood this with the cliche "I disagree with you, but will defend your right to say it till the death."  Alas, since we don't have this level of nation-wide maturity and prefer corporate virtue signaling over the freedom of speech, Corporate America and the FAANG companies can expect to expend unnecessary resources doing the Eggshell-Easily-Offended-Virtue-Signaling-Waltz for the rest of their marketing days.  I just sincerely hope some people at heads of their marketing departments learned the two lessons I mentioned above.
____________________
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Thursday, May 17, 2018

Top 10 Movies Every Man (and Woman) Should See

I failed to included "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid."  That would dethrone "Lost in Translation" if I were to re-edit the list.

Also I have been working on a new site: www.olderbrother.com which has been taking the majority of my time this week.  Posts and production will return to normal come Monday.


Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Episode #255 of the Clarey Podcast - Gay Men are Happy Special



Cappy's Guardian Angel "Claude."
No moms were hot in the 80's.
Jordan Peterson "Welcome to the party pal!!!"
Why gay men are so happy.

and MORE!!!

in THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast.

Direct MP3 link here.

RSS feed here.

Sponsored by Invisible Hand Fashion!

 

Friday, May 11, 2018

The Older Brother Podcast #1


Cappy, Florian, Chad Elkins and Ann Sterzinger talk about:

Just how COMPLETELY worthless MBA's are.
Do women love their education/degree above all else?
Teaching in modern day colleges - it's a joke.
Chicago is NOT the place to become an actor/actress.
Crying in biology lab.
Cappy's upcoming dating service for traditional men looking for traditional women.
And answering some SuperChat questions!

MP3 link here.
Sound cloud link here.
RSS feed here.

Visit Asshole Consulting and check out Cappy's books for MORE older brother wisdom!


Thursday, May 10, 2018

Why Mathematically It Could Not Have Possibly Been "All About the Oil"

I rank the argument of "it's all about the oil" somewhere around "it's all about the corporations, maaaan" and "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer."  Very simple, easy explanations that explain complex, international economic and political phenomena for thoroughly dumb people who are too lazy to put much thought or effort into things.  However, even though the Iraq war is effectively over and we've nowhere near the military force we had in the Mid East ten years ago, my mind was jarred to do a little math whilst listening to a podcast about Germany's synthetic oil industry during WWII.  With the Allies cutting off Germany's access to the Baku and other oil regions, Germany was forced to produce oil synthetically which begat the question in Cappy's mind...

How much does it cost to create a synthetic barrel of oil?

This is an important question because the Iraq/Afghanistan war was not cheap.  $2.4 trillion as of 2017.  And so I asked "how much synthetic oil could we have produced with that money instead?" If it's all about the oil, synthetic or not, would it have been cheaper to just produce it at home...not to mention avoid all the death and destruction the war has cost both sides?

So the math goes like this:

The US imports 5.1 million barrels per day from the Mid East region.  Not Iraq (that's only .61 million barrels), not OPEC (that's only 3.4) the ENTIRE region is 5.1 million barrels per day.  The reason I took the entire region is you know these Neanderthal "It's All About the Oil" dopes are going to say "you know maaaaannn, it wasn't just about Iraq, but the entire region maaaaan."  

So fine, 5.1 million barrels per day it is.

This translates into 1.9 billion barrels per year, which when you apply the $95 per barrel it is estimated to cost to produce it synthetically, you're looking at an annual price tab for synthetic oil of $177 billion to replace Mid East oil.  This compares to the annual cost of the Iraq/Afghanistan war of $172 billion, so a profit of $5 billion per year, effectively a net wash (though I'd argue a $150 billion loss per year if you assume we were merely going after only Iraqi oil).

When you consider this it is painfully obvious we did not go to war in the Mid East (at any time) because "it was all about the oil maaaan."  There was no profit to be had in it, merely the unnecessarily cost of human lives, the destruction of military property, and the human/collateral damage Iraq and Afghanistan would face.  Additionally, if you believe in Keynesianism, even leftists would have to admit that that money would have been better spent/invested at home, creating jobs and an economic boom derived from a domestic synthetic oil industry.

Admittedly, I know this little back of napkin math exercise will prove largely pointless.  The knuckle-dragging, mouth breathers known as academic and professional activist leftists won't care because they need something to complain about (let alone I doubt they can understand the basic division and multiplication displayed above).  But if/when do run into these people again, just remind them of this the sad fact.  It should cut the argument short and hopefully get them to shut up about "blood for oil" and allow you to move on about your day.

Tuesday, May 08, 2018

Episode #253 of The Clarey Podcast-"I'm Majoring in Horsies" Special!


Silver Dollar Bikini and Red Pill Posers.
Grandpa Bunny Bunny.
You can Major in Horses.
Rich People Can't Raise Good Children.
Milo Yiannopolous Gives Up the "Position of Fuck You"
Girls Replacing Men with "Fish Sex"
Dating Rich Girls

AND MORE!!!

In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!!!

Direct MP3 link here.

RSS feed here.

Sponsored by MTFUNow.com and Invisible Hand Fashion!

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/154553909X/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=captaicapit0b-20&camp=1789&creative=9325&linkCode=as2&creativeASIN=154553909X&linkId=45c4ea03097b1a5e12e0fbe0b148598e

American Real Estate: Are Rents or the Printing Presses More Reliable?


I teach two online classes on finance and investing (I would recommend neither because you can get the same much cheaper here and here).  And one of the common questions I get is "How about real estate for investing?  Can I invest in that?  My buddy says it's the way to make money!"

I try not to get angry because I have to remind myself that this is a beginner's course and most of my students' first introduction to investing.

Yes, you can invest in real estate.
Yes, you can make it rich by doing so.
No, you likely don't have the education, experience, tenacity, or capital to do so.

But another problem I face with real estate as a form of investment is the same problem that plaques nearly every asset class around the globe - nearly everything is overvalued.

This overvaluation comes from countries' central banks doing two things.  One, tripling, quadrupling, or quintupling the money supply. And two, keeping interest rates artificially low.  Since money is fungible, it inevitably finds its way into the larger economy, plus corporations have the incentive to borrow at historically low interest rates and repurchase their own shares.  So this money goes the only place it can - asset prices.  I say asset prices and not consumables (which would traditionally be what we'd expect a la 1970's stagflation) because of three reasons.  One, our consumables are primarily imported keeping consumer prices low.  Two, despite our raping of our own currency, other countries have raped their's even worse.  This allows the US dollar to remain the world's reserve currency and us to export our inflation to naive and more corruption nations' economies.  Three, the genesis or pathology of a lot of this new money is borrowing, so items purchased with debt tend to go up.  Thus why housing, cars, health insurance, stocks, and college tuition are experiencing hyperinflation...but you American sheep think this is a good thing.  In short, asset prices, but specifically stocks and real estate, are no longer driven by fundamentals, but an ever-expanding monetary policy, which presents us with an interesting question when it comes to real estate investing;

Are renters or government printing presses more reliable?

The paradox that one faces with real estate (and other asset classes) is that they are no longer actual investments where underlying cash flows (such as dividends, interest, or earnings) inevitably pay back the original investment and continue to provide an adequate monthly or quarterly ROI.  They are now functioning as hedges against inflation as asset prices are decoupled from the cash flows that traditionally and historically gave them value.  And so now people who wish to invest in real estate or perhaps are just facing the prospects of selling their home face a problem - do you invest in an overpriced asset whose cash flow simply doesn't warrant the price being asked to be paid, or do you buy it anyway because you'll be priced out of the market (a sentiment Millennials might be somewhat familiar with, even though they voted this upon themselves).

Though risky and completely against fundamentals (not to mention my conservative nature), I'm wondering if it isn't necessary to own some kind of housing (or stock) as simply a hedge against inflation.  Additionally, I'm finding it infinitely more reliable that governments are going to keep their printing presses than me finding a reliable tenant who pays on time every time and stays in the place for years to come.  And whereas I'd like to say that there's going to be a crash this time, I'm more and more convinced if a crash is going to come at all, it will be in the form of stagnating prices, not an actual crash.  Overvalued as property prices may be, there isn't the massive oversupply of inventory there was in 2007, and the feds are so far up banks' asses their exposure is not what it was 10 years ago.  We can hope and cheer for a serious recession which I do believe would at least temper (hopefully tank) property prices, giving us commoners opportunities to invest in reasonably priced properties (and other asset classes) that do provide adequate ROI, but we must also face the chance that like "perma-bubble" markets such as Australia and Vancouver, external forces are flooding the markets with so much money, you're almost compelled to own at least some REIT's or indexed funds just to match inflation.

So if you're looking to sell your house, remember you have to buy another one.
If you're thinking the S&P 500 is overvalued, it most certainly is...but how much more money is the fed going to print off this year?
And if you think tuition is too high now, just wait till next year.

Thankfully, at least we know college is an increasingly worthless investment you can avoid. Perhaps you Millennials can use the proceeds you save from not attending to put as a down payment on a mini-house.
__________________
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Monday, May 07, 2018

The Increasing Chance You'll Never Marry

I had a client that for all points and purposes played his cards right.  A nip and a tuck here might have helped, but no major flaws or errors on his part.  Matter of fact, he's an incredibly good looking man, with no debt, a condo, a career, and several trades and skills that would make him a "most eligible bachelor" type. 

Just one problem.

The country he's from (Scandinavian) has so indoctrinated women into putting their careers and educations above marriage and children, it pretty statistically likely he's just not going to find a marriageable woman. And this is a lesson many men (and women) need to learn.

There's an increasing chance you're never going to marry.  Nothing by your own fault, but by how replacing men with the state, eliminating masculinity from society, and putting careers and educations above people have ruined everyone for everybody else.